Farmer Almanac Winter Prediction 2013

Farmer Almanac Winter Prediction 2013

Winter 2001-02: What’s in Store 1 El Nio, La Nia FAQs Sources of Weather Information 2 Winter Temp Rule of Thumb 3 The Farmer’s Almanac Says 3 BMP Notes 3 Shrimp/Oyster Market Info

4 FDA Inspection Grant Received 4 Inside this issue: florida aquaculture CHARLES H.BRONSON, COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTUREIssue No.12 November 2001 Winter 2001-02: What’s in Store Page 2 FLORIDA AQUACULTURE press the severe arctic outbreaks of cold air that cause damaging freezes.

El Nio usually has a strong subtropical jet that "blocks" arctic air masses from entering Florida.

La Nia limits the movement of the polar jet over the United States, steering winter storms and stronger cold fronts to our north.

The probability of freeze events this coming winter is presented as a map in terms of

the odds of at least three con-tive nights of below freezing temperatures.

In the black area, the odds of three nights of freezing weather are 2:1, or greater, this year.

Likewise, the odds are better than even in the dark gray areas and about even in the light gray areas.

The odds of three nights of freezing weather declines in the lighter gray areas, and in the white ar-eas of South Florida freeze events will be rare.

The analysis and map for this article was generously provided by Dr.James O’Brien, State Cli-matologist, and his staff at the Florida Climate Center, Florida State University.

The Center has produced a free booklet entitled, “2001/2002 Winter Freeze Forecast for Flor-ida,”

For a copy, contact David Zierden at 850-3417 or zier-

FAQs: La Nia and El Nio What's the difference between La Nia and El Nio?

El Nio and La Nia are extreme phases of a natu-rally occurring climate cycle referred to as El Nio/Southern Oscillation.Both terms refer to largescale changes in sea-e temperature across the eastern tropical Pacific.Usually, sea-surface readings off South America's west coast range from the 60s to 70sF, while they exceed 80F in the "warm pool" located in the central and western Pacific.This warm pool expands to cover the tropics during El Nio, but during La Nia, the easterly trade winds strengthen and cold upwelling along the equator and the west coast of South America intensifies.Sea-surface temperatures along the equator can fall as much as 7F below normal.Why do El Nio and La Nia occur? El Nio and La Nia result from interaction between the surface of the ocean and the atmosphere in the tropical Pacific.

Changes in the ocean impact the at-mosphere and climate patterns around the globe.In turn, changes in the atmosphere impact the ocean tem-peratures and currents.

The system oscillates between warm (El Nio) to neutral or cold (La Nia) conditions on average every two or seven years.

Does a La Nia typically follow an El Nio? No, a La Nia episode may, but does not always fol-low, an El Nio.
* * *

This information was taken from a web site main-tained by the National Weather Service’s Climate Pre-diction Center ( Temperature Rule of Thumb ISSUE NO.12 Page 3

The Second International Conference on Marine Ornamen-tals will be November 26 - December 1, 2001 at the Wynham Palace Resort and Spa, Lake Buena Vista, Flor- The conference includes over 70 speakers, a trade show, tours and excellent networking opportunities for anyone interested in marine ornamentals.

Special emphasis will be placed on collection, culture and conservation topics.

Take advantage of this international meeting and attend.

Visit the conference web site () or call (352-930) to register.

Sources of Weather Informa Who can buy live restricted species?

We hear this question most often from our certified tilapia producers.

The Best Management Practices for restricted nonnative species limits live sales to those individuals who have written authorization to possess a restricted species.

As the seller it is your responsibility to ask the purchaser for proof of this authorization.

If you are selling to an aquacul-ist, that person

must have both an Aquaculture Certificate of Registration and letter authorizing the farmer to possess a restricted species.

These are issued by the Division of Aqua-culture.

Retailers, live haulers and recreational pond owners acquire their authorization from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC).

Purchasers who do not have these authorizations can contact the Division.

We can fast track the authorization process so that sales are not lost and we can provide the FWC forms if needed.

Give us a call.

The intent of the Aquaculture BMP program is to promote aquaculture development and protect Florida’s environment.

Sales records of

all live restricted species must be main-tained and available for inspection for up to two years.

If you are a producer of restricted species our staff will be ask-ing to review these records during their regular BMP compli-ance visits.

If you have a question about BMPs,

call or send them to Kal Knickerbocker, 850-0875 or Notes The Florida Climate Center provides this simple “rule of thumb” to predict the severity of approaching cold fronts
farmer almanac winter prediction 2013

If the high pressure center dips south of Dallas, Texas, there is a good chance Florida will see freezing tempera-tures.If the high stays north of Dallas, Florida is proba-bly safe.

Remember, this is just a rule of thumb and you should monitor the official National Weather Service forecasts and current conditions from FAWN for up-date information.The Florida Climate Center, /, provides climate data, information, and services for Florida and the United States.

The Center strives to provide climate data, extreme weather event information and special weather analysis.

They are af-ated with the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, North Carolina, and the Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC) in Columbia, South Carolina.

The University of Florida maintains the Florida Auto-mated Weather Network (FAWN) at is designed to assist farmers with climate prediction information, management tools and weather data.

This site also includes a number of hotlinks to weatherrelated sites and provides up-date weather information through a system of automated weather sta-tions distributed throughout the state.The Farmer’s Almanac web site has not predicted winter weather for the Southeast, but indirectly confirms this will be a cold winter: “According to our time-tested formula, winter will begin early, with significant snows possible for the northern states during late November 2001.

We also expect another very active winter weather pattern, espe-cially in the Northeast.

For there, we predict a few heavy snowstorms and even a near-blizzard (in the second week of February).

Above-average precipitation will fall in the East and the Pacific Northwest, but the area from the Plains to the Great Lakes will be drier than normal.”

Their weather analysis and hot links to a variety of weather re-lated web sites is posted at

The Farmer’s Almanac Says The Division of Aquaculture has received a $50,000 grant from the U.S.Food and Drug Administration to develop and implement a model custom software and pen tablet computer inspection program.

Through the use of this new system shellfish processing plant inspection, current shellfish sanitation, and critical food safety information will be made readily available to the plant inspectors, program managers and the U.S.Food and Drug Administration via an electronic connection to an Internet-based database.

Time between inspections, in-plant inspection time, report errors and paperwork will be reduced and, most importantly, communication between plant owners and managers and the inspection staff improved.

The Division will field test and provide the system model for eventual adoption by other Interstate Shellfish Sanitation Conference member states.

For additional information, contact Bobby Bickley at 850- Division of Aquaculture The Division of Aquaculture is the newest division within the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services and was created by the Florida Legislature in 1999.

Primary responsibilities include certifying all legitimate aquaculturists through an annual registration, implementing a program of Aquaculture Best Manage-ment Practices to meet the State of Florida’s environmental goals, managing 1.4 million acres of coastal waters for the harvest or culture of wholesome shellfish, implementing the National Shellfish Sanitation Program through periodic inspection of shellfish processing plants and product, and issuing submerged sovereign land leases for the culture of shellfish or live rock.

The aquaculture and shellfish industry can acquire information through a variety of means.

The Division can be contacted by telephone, 850-4033 and 488-5471, or fax 850-0893.

Tallahassee and the seven state offices are open five days a week from 8:00 AM to 5:00 PM.

State offices are located in Apalachicola, Bartow, Cedar Key, Murdock, Palm Bay, Panama City and Titusville.

Internet users can visit the Division’s web site at for industry and program information.The Bureau of Seafood and Aquaculture Marketing has completed the coordination of two marketing research grants entitled “Identifying and Assessing Potential Direct Markets for Farmraised Shrimp Grown on Small Farms” and “New Oyster Product:

Processing and Market Research.”

The final reports for both these grants are available on the Bureau’s website,

In addition, two new grants have been awarded to the Bureau on behalf of the seafood and aquaculture industries for 2001-2002.

These research projects are entitled “Market Analysis of Hispanic Consumer Attitudes Towards Seafood” and the “Gulf Oyster Industry Program:

Integrated Oyster Market Research, Product Development and Evaluation, Promotion and Consumer Education Program for the Gulf of Mexico’s Oyster Industry.”
For additional information regarding any of these projects, call Tom Thomas or Paul Balthrop, 850- Stand Mail U.S.

D lahassee, FL it No.764 Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services Division of Aquaculture 1203 Governor's Square Blvd., 5th Floor Tallahassee, FL


Shrimp and Oyster Market Info Available FDA Grant to Improve Shellfish Plant Inspections.
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